Politicians and journalists who participate in the policymaking process fail to appreciate the limitations of the analytical models used by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The demand for pseudoscience leads to unwise policy choices. Although the CBO is nonpartisan, the presentation of its model results serves to focus attention on scenarios that are favorable to intervention and to deficit spending. But the policy discussion does not include scenarios in which intervention fails to accomplish intended results or where economic shocks make a large government debt problematic. This Essay recommends ways for Congress to redirect the CBO, resulting in analysis and reporting that would provide better support for public policy.
Economist, author of several books, most recently The Three Languages of Politics and Specialization and Trade. In 1975, prior to obtaining his Ph.D. in economics, he worked as a research assistant at the Congressional Budget Office. He wishes to thank Peter Beck and Yusef Al-Jarani for vital assistance in preparing this essay.
